Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Podcast Host Goes Offline

I have some bad news. The Web site that used to host the Winning Hand Sportscast, Switchpod.com, has gone offline, and taken all of its podcast files with it. For the time being, that leaves me with no place to store my podcast.

Unfortunately, Switchpod was perfect for my needs. It offered a lot of storage space for free. Now that it's gone, there's few comparable alternatives. There are many good pay services out there, but I've yet to find any free hosting that has enough space to even hold a month's worth of podcasts. If you know of one, please let me know.

In the meantime, I'll still offer the occasional update here at MattHubert.com. Plus, I've started a new Erie BayHawks blog called Blog Talk BayHawk.

Monday, May 18, 2009

2009 NBA Conference Finals Picks

The conference finals are here. After tonight’s one night break, the NBA has a game scheduled each day for the next two weeks. By then, if not sooner, we’ll have our 2009 NBA Finals matchup. My conference finals picks are coming in a bit, but first, a look back at how I fared in round two.

To recap, I'm using the scoring system from TrueHoop blogger Henry Abbott's Stat Geek Smackdown. The scoring system is 5 points for each correct series winner, plus 2 points if you get the number of games correct.

My picks
Cleveland over Atlanta in 5 = 5 points
Boston over Orlando in 7 = 0 points
Los Angeles over Houston in 5 = 5 points
Denver over Dallas in 6 = 5 points

1st round = 36 points
2nd round = 15 points
Total = 51 points

Boston’s Game 7 failure cost me 7 big points. Aside from that, I again underestimated the Cavs and Nuggets as they’ve both breezed through the first two rounds. For the record, my 51 points ties me with Henry’s mom in second-to-last place. Oh well.

Moving on to the conference finals, I still believe the Lakers and Cavaliers are on a collision course to meet for the championship, even if L.A. struggled to eliminate a depleted Rockets team. While I’m confident about who will advance, trying to predict the number of games is tough. I think both Orlando and Denver are tough enough to win a couple of games in the series, but I don’t see either squad forcing a Game 7.

Eastern Conference Finals
Cleveland over Orlando in 6

Western Conference Finals
Los Angeles over Denver in 6

Saturday, May 16, 2009

Game 7 Looms for Los Angeles

I still cannot believe that the Lakers’ season could actually be over 24 hours from now. The problem is, I’m not sure the Lakers realize that either. They’ve had multiple wake up calls during this playoff run—perhaps more of a playoff jog or playoff brisk walk—and have continually hit the snooze bar.

So now they’re down to a one-game, winner-take-all Game 7 against an undermanned, undersized Houston team that clearly has the Lakers overmatched in one key area. Use whatever term you want: heart, desire, will, want-to, effort, energy, enthusiasm. The Rockets bring it and the Lakers wing it. I haven’t been this frustrated, well, since the Lakers last played an elimination game. For those who need a reminder, they were embarrassed by the Boston Celtics, 131-92. The Celtics celebrated an NBA championship and the Lakers vowed to come back tougher this year. Ha.

Toughness—both physical and mental—remains the glaring vulnerability of this Lakers team. Their recent history with their backs against the wall isn’t encouraging either. Including the Boston Finals debacle last year, L.A. has faced elimination just three times in the post-Shaq era, and they’re 0-3 in elimination games.

In 2006, the Lakers met the Phoenix Suns in the first round. L.A. took a 3-1 series lead, but the Suns won the next two to force a Game 7. And in the series finale, the Lakers folded, losing 121-90 in a game in which they never led.

The following year, they met up with Phoenix in round one again. This time it was the Suns who jumped out to a 3-1 series lead. But the Lakers would not force a Game 7—or even a Game 6. They lost Game 5 by a count of 119-110, again never leading at any point.

Throw in the 2004 NBA Finals against the Pistons and 2003 Western Conference Semifinals, and the Lakers are 0-5 in their last five elimination games. They haven’t won an elimination game since they took both Games 6 and 7 of the Western Conference Finals against Sacramento in 2002. Incidentally, that team was also the last Lakers team to win a championship.

With home court advantage and memories of a 40-point win the last time the Rockets visited Staples Center, the Lakers are the clear favorites in Game 7. But if they’re going to win and advance, they can’t rest on their laurels. They have to come out from the opening tip with something to prove and give a spirited full 48 minutes of intensity and execution. If not, Houston is more than capable of stealing another game and the series, leaving the Lakers and their fans another long, agonizing offseason of questioned toughness and finger-pointing.

Friday, May 15, 2009

Grading the Game 6 F-ort

Frustrated. Disappointed. Angry. The Lakers brought out a cornucopia of negative emotions from me with their dismal Game 6 performance. They started the game by digging themselves a 17-1 hole that they would never emerge from. Credit the Rockets for not rolling over when everyone (myself included) was already talking about how L.A. matched-up against Denver. Fault the Lakers for thinking the Rockets would.

Collectively, there is no question that the Lakers deserve an F for their effort in this one. If there was a grade lower than an F, I’d give them that. But I’m not satisfied with just one blanket grade for this lackluster performance, so let me go down the line and assess the Lakers roster one-by-one.

Phil Jackson: D
He can only do so much to preach to his team about not having a letdown game. My gripe with Jackson is his lineup decisions. Farmar should play the bulk of the point guard minutes against the speedy Aaron Brooks. Shannon Brown should be the primary matchup against Kyle Lowry, and Fisher should only see spot minutes filling in. I also don’t want to see any more Luke Walton or Josh Powell in this series.

Kobe Bryant: B-
He may be the only Laker that I trust to bring it every night (excluding the second half of Game 7 vs. Phoenix in 2006). Still, he was hardly at his best last night. The careless turnover he had trying to feed the post in the third quarter was a momentum killer after the Lakers had cut the deficit to two. He also needs to resist the temptation to go for the FU-jumpers Battier wants him to take and instead make a commitment to getting into the paint and onto the free throw line for some easy points and/or kick-out opportunities to spot-up shooters.

Derek Fisher: F
Derek Fisher is past his prime. OK, fair enough. I don’t expect major statistical production from him anymore. And I don’t expect him to be able to defend quick point guards like Aaron Brooks. (You hear that, Phil?) Still, as the only Laker besides Kobe with any championship rings, I expect certain intangible benefits from him as a veteran leader of this team. Jacking up pull-up jumpers in transition, missing open 3s, and forcing the issue on offense before any offensive rebounders are in position are not among the things he should be bringing to the table. Is it a coincidence that L.A. won the game he was suspended in this series? I’m not so sure it is.

Pau Gasol: D
It is simply unacceptable for Pau Gasol, an All-NBA selection to be outplayed by the likes of Luis Scola, Chuck Hayes, and Carl Landry. Unacceptable. No one epitomizes the soft problems more than Gasol. Don’t get me wrong, the Lakers need him. But they need him to step up and be someone they can run the offense through, especially given the injury status of the Rockets’ front line.

Lamar Odom: C+
Odom is the individual player most like this Lakers team. He is so ridiculously talented that there is little he cannot do, but you never know what version is going to show up from game to game. For being the only Laker that seemed to want to rebound the ball in Game 6, and doing so with a severely bruised back, I’m giving him one of the few decent grades.

Andrew Bynum: F
Where did you go, Andrew Bynum? The man that was supposed to be a key cog in the Lakers’ attack after returning from injury has yet to fit back in. He used to be good for a few dunks, offensive rebounds, and shot blocks per game. Now he looks lost on offense and fouls like Greg Oden on defense. He’s young enough to have time to redeem himself, but it’s looking less and less like that will happen this year—let alone this series.

Trevor Ariza: C-
He was a key contributer to the Lakers’ brief sign of life in the third quarter, getting a steal and dunk and then connecting on a 3. Unfortunately, his supposed role of defensive stopper isn’t getting much press considering the workmanlike job the Rockets’ Shane Battier is doing on Kobe.

Jordan Farmar: C+
He may have been the only Laker to make a positive impact on the first half. Then when he finally got some fourth quarter minutes in place of Jackson, his impact lessened. I still think he needs to get more time in Game 7, though as his energy and quickness is needed.

Shannon Brown: C
The most consistent player off the L.A. bench this postseason didn’t do much good or bad for the team in this one.

Sasha Vujacic: F
One of the team’s most deadly weapons off the bench last season, Vujacic hasn’t shot the ball well all season, and this series is no different. His inability to hit shots has cut into his playing time and allowed the Houston defenders to sag into the paint against Kobe.

Luke Walton: D-
Walton is noted for his basketball IQ, but I frown every time I see him on the floor. He’s become an offensive liability and he’s not much better on the defensive end.

DJ Mbenga: D
I realize he didn’t play, but DJ deserves a “D” because defensive intensity is the one thing he brings to this team. If he were on the Rockets, he’d likely be seeing some playing time filling in for the injured Yao and Mutombo. And he’d probably be outworking Gasol, Bynum, and Odom, too.

Josh Powell: D-
As the roster replacement for Ronny Turiaf, Powell gave them some quality performances during the regular season, showing that he could be a reliable pick-and-pop player. But his deficiencies have surfaced in the playoffs. Unlike Turiaf, Powell is a low-key guy. Turiaf brought a feistiness and energy that this team seems to lack. Turiaf was also a better post defender and stronger rebounder. I was sad to see him go when he did, but I really didn’t miss him until now as he’d be the perfect answer to counter the Rockets’ Chuck Hayes and Carl Landry.

Adam Morrison: INCOMPLETE
In need of comic relief? Take a look at the 2006 NBA Draft. Morrison was chosen third overall yet he’s spent the series in a suit watching picks 24-26 play meaningful minutes right before his eyes. I don’t know If Morrison will ever matter as a Laker, but I’m at least intrigued to see if watching the playoffs from close up has an effect on him next season.

Thursday, May 14, 2009

The Winning Hand Sportscast 5/14/09

Matt and Mike talk about the latest happenings in the NBA playoffs, including the red hot Nuggets, the inconsistent Lakers and the dominant Cavs.

There are five different ways to listen:

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

The Winning Hand Sportscast 5/6/09

Matt and special guest host Ryan Colvin talk NBA and, in breaking from the Winning Hand Sportscast tradition, NHL playoffs. Plus, what face card does Matt have in store for Brett Favre? Find out in this episode.

There are five different ways to listen:

Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Two Recipes for the Lakers

I went to bed angry last night. It’s one thing to lose a playoff game. It’s another to come out at home in a series opener and lose like THAT.

The same things that the Lakers got away with in their first-round series win against Utah surfaced in Game 1 Monday night against Houston. It was a recipe for disaster.

Lazy defense? The Rockets will move the ball, find the open man and hit the shot. Bypass boxing out? Scrappy Chuck Hayes, Carl Landry and company will sniff out the loose ball and give their team extra possessions. Rely on perimeter shooting? Houston’s defense will make you work. Open shots are few and far between, and you’ll be more tired if you ever do get an open look.

There’s no question which team is more talented in this series. The Lakers have the most talented roster In the league. But the Rockets proved in Game 1 that great effort and execution can defeat great talent.

Call it rust from the long layoff between series. Or call It an off-night (the Lakers shot just 11 percent (2-18) from 3-point range to go along with 63 percent shooting from the line and 44 percent from the field.

Despite all of this, the Lakers never trailed by more than 11 and even led by 1 briefly in the fourth quarter before the Rockets closed the game on a 24-15 run.

So, now that I’ve had some time to blow off some steam via text messages to my brother, an e-mail to my dad and several ranting tweets and Facebook status updates, let me offer the an 8-step recipe of improvement to help the Lakers bounce back from this ugly 8-point defeat.

  1. Start Lamar Odom.
    The Lakers are crisper with Odom and Gasol than they are with Bynum and Gasol (or Bynum and Odom) up front. It’s as simple as that. Plus, Bynum seems to pick up quick fouls almost every game relegating him back to the bench anyway. Let Bynum play with the second unit where the Rockets really have no backup center to defend him.

  2. Get Gasol involved early and often.
    Pau gives the Lakers a mismatch whether it’s quickness against Yao or size and skill versus Scola, Hayes or Landry. They need to get him the ball on the low block and let him go to work. Bynum going at Yao is not the way to attack. Gasol is an all-star and a better passer if the Rockets choose to double-team.

  3. Make an effort to get to the free throw line.
    I’m looking at you Kobe. Five free throw attempts is not going to cut it. Yao is a presence inside, but you still have to challenge him. Take the ball to the hoop strong and stop settling for outside shots.

  4. Give Shannon Brown and Jordan Farmar more playing time.
    Fisher is not a good matchup against the Rockets’ speedy point guard tandem of Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry. Brown and Farmar have the speed and quickness to stay with them and limit penetration. Fisher brings veteran leadership, but his minutes should be limited throughout this series.

  5. Pass the ball with a purpose.
    There was too much stagnant offense from the Lakers in Game 1. The Rockets are a tough defensive team, but you make their job easier when the ball is sticking in one place.

  6. Make someone other than Yao beat you.
    Offensively Houston looks into Yao Ming on almost every possession. The Lakers need to show Yao different looks to complicate things for him. Double-team him on the catch one time, on the dribble the next, play him straight up the next time. Frustrate Yao and you’ll stifle the Rockets.

  7. Shoot with confidence.
    Ariza, Vujacic, Fisher, Brown, Farmar…when you have an open look from downtown, step into your shot and put it in. Don’t think about it. Don’t hesitate. Just shoot it. There’s no way we’re going 2-18 from distance again.

  8. Show some passion.
    Somebody show me that you care. Remember the beatdown Boston gave you last season? Where is that team that was poised to make this postseason different? Give me an FU dunk on Yao. Give me a good clean, hard, playoff foul on Aaron Brooks the next time he slithers into the paint. C’mon now!

Sunday, May 3, 2009

2009 Conference Semifinals Picks

With the Hawks in the process of blowing out Miami in Game 7, the conference semifinals are all but set in stone. I'll give my second round picks in a second, but first it's time for a quick recap of my first round picks.

To recap, I'm using the scoring system from TrueHoop blogger Henry Abbott's Stat Geek Smackdown. The scoring system is 5 points for each correct series winner, plus 2 points if you get the number of games correct.


My picks
Cleveland over Detroit in 5 = 5 points
Boston over Chicago in 4 = 5 points
Orlando over Philadelphia in 6 = 7 points
Atlanta over Miami in 7 = 7 points
Los Angeles over Utah in 5 = 7 points
Denver over New Orleans in 7 = 5 points
San Antonio over Dallas in 6 = 0 points
Portland over Houston in 6 = 0 points
Round 1 total = 36 points

The two Western conference series that I missed surprised me. In retrospect, I'm mad at myself for not taking Houston with the experience edge they had over Portland. But I definitely didn't see Dallas knocking off the Spurs, especially in such easy fashion. I also should've taken that Cavs sweep, but I gave Detroit too much credit for past success.

Moving on to round two, I remain very confident that the Lakers and Cavaliers will have little trouble advancing. The other two series have more question marks. My picks are as follows:

Eastern Conference Semifinals
Cleveland over Atlanta in 5
Boston over Orlando in 7

Western Conference Semifinals
Los Angeles over Houston in 5
Denver over Dallas in 6

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