Predicting the Final 10-12 Games in the NBA's Wild, Wild West

The race for the Western Conference playoffs is likely going to go right down to the final day of the schedule, April 16, when 8 of the 9 teams vying for a spot will be in action. (The Lakers’ season wraps up one night earlier.)

With each team having between 10 and 12 games left on their respective schedules, I just had to peak ahead. Below, I dare to prognosticate how they’ll finish based on their remaining schedules.

Seed. Team, Projected W-L

1. San Antonio Spurs, 57-25
After losing 6 of 7 earlier this month, it’s hard to believe the Spurs could finish with the best record in the West, but they’re only 1 game back of the number one spot today, 6 of their final 10 are at home, and only two of their road games are against fellow Western playoff contenders.

2. New Orleans Hornets, 56-26
The Hornets are quietly buzzing along with the best record in the West as of today. However, the scheduling gods aren’t smiling down on them. They’re currently on a 6-game road trip that includes Boston and Orlando. All in all, 8 of their final 12 games are on the road. Throw in home dates with Golden State and Utah, and the Hornets may have the toughest schedule the rest of the way in the West.

3. Los Angeles Lakers, 56-26
If the Lakers lose the April 11 date with New Orleans, the Hornets will own the season series tiebreaker. A Lakers win would split the season series 2-2 and the next tiebreaker would be conference winning percentage, which is currently up in the air. The Lakers have 7 of their final 10 games at home, 8 if you include the “road game” at the Clippers in Staples Center. With all three games against West contenders at home, the Lakers would be in position to secure the top seed if it weren’t for their myriad of injuries.

4. Utah Jazz, 54-28
By virtue of winning the Northwest Division, the Jazz would be assured one of the top four seeds. However, home court advantage in the first round still goes to the team with the better overall winning percentage. That matters as much to Utah as anyone in the West. Utah is one of only two Western playoff contenders with a losing record on the road. With road games against New Orleans, Dallas and San Antonio down the stretch, the Jazz are likely to start the postseason on the road.

5. Houston Rockets, 55-27
Houston plays just 3 of its final 10 games at home. The good news is that only 3 of their 7 road games are against Western playoff contenders. The bad news is that they play a back-to-back at Denver and at Utah in the final week of the season. A win this Sunday at San Antonio would be huge as they kick off a 5-game road trip. A Rockets-Jazz rematch of last year’s first round 7-game series would be fantastic.

6. Phoenix Suns, 54-28
Back-to-back losses to beasts of the East, Detroit and Boston, have to have Suns fans wondering about their championship potential. Their closing schedule features 6 road games and 5 home games. A back-to-back this Friday and Saturday against Philadelphia and New Jersey, two Eastern Conference teams fighting for playoff positioning, should not be overlooked before Phoenix closes the season with its final 9 games against teams from the West.

My predictions had the Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors finishing the season deadlocked at 50-32, which means I had to consult the rules for a three-team tiebreaker. They are as follows:

1. Best head-to-head winning percentage among all teams tied
2. Highest winning percentage within division (if teams are in the same division
3. Highest winning percentage in conference games
4. Highest winning percentage against playoff teams in own conference
5. Highest point differential between points scored and points allowed

Talk about potential drama. Dallas (sans Dirk Nowitski) travels to Denver tonight. The teams split their first two games. The Nuggets also have two games remaining with Golden State (1 home, 1 away) after splitting the first two games against the Warriors. Dallas currently leads Golden State 2-0, but the Mavs and Warriors also have two games remaining.

For the record:

• Dallas is 3-1 against Denver and Golden State with 3 games remaining (1 home).
• Denver is 2-2 against Dallas and Golden State with 3 games remaining (2 home).
• Golden State is 1-3 against Dallas and Denver with 4 games remaining (2 home).

Depending on your perspective, the Warriors are in the best or worst position. They currently have the worst head-to-head winning percentage among all teams tied, however four of their final 12 games of the season are against their direct competition. If they sweep Dallas and Denver, they’re almost surely going to be in. Anything short of that, and it’s anybody’s guess.

My guess? Golden State gets 2 from a Dirk-less Mavs team and splits with Denver, making them 4-4 in the three-way head-to-head series. And Denver wins tonight against Dallas, which puts the Mavs at 3-4 and the Nuggets at 4-3.

That would mean Denver gets seventh slot, Golden State slips in at number eight and the Mavericks would be the odd team out. Shocking to imagine the number one seed from the West last year could miss the postseason after adding Jason Kidd, but it’s entirely possible in the West this year.