2009 NFL Divisional Playoffs Preview

I didn’t write a column with last weekend’s wild card round picks. It was right after the holidays. I was in a time crunch. Blah blah blah. Anyway, I didn’t write a column, but I posted my usual playoff picks, and I went 3-1.

By not thinking (and writing) too much, I didn’t talk myself into any bad picks. The only game I missed was the Chargers-Colts battle, and that game was the closest of them all, eventually being settled in overtime in favor of San Diego thanks to career nights for backup running back Darren Sproies and punter Mike Scifres.

So, after the silent treatment was successful, I’m doing the obvious—completely abandoning that winning strategy and writing a picks column for the divisional round. I’m feeling good after winning Erie Times-News sports columnist Duane Rankin’s BCS challenge with a clean sweep, 5-0, of the big college bowl games. Now it’s time for me to go pro with the picks for this weekend.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans
The first team to 10 may very well win this game. These teams play similar grind-it-out styles that depend on their defenses and running games. The primary contrast comes at quarterback. The Ravens will play rookie Joe Flacco. The Titans will start 36-year-old veteran Kerry Collins, whose first playoff start came Jan. 5, 1997. Flacco was 11 years old. Collins hasn’t exactly had a Hall of Fame career, but I think his wisdom and Flacco’s inexperience will be the difference in this one.

My pick: Tennessee 13, Baltimore 3

Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers
This game looks to be the biggest mismatch of the weekend. Carolina was 8-0 at home this season, and Arizona was just 3-5 on the road. Plus, the Cardinals may be without Anquan Boldin, allowing the Panthers to put extra attention on Larry Fitzgerald. Expect Kurt Warner to keep it close for a half, but then the Panthers’ will pull away to win going away.

My pick: Carolina 34, Arizona 17

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants
Last year, the Giants were in the Eagles’ role, heading to Dallas for a divisional round matchup on the road as an underdog. So the Giants won’t be blindsided by Donovan McNabb and company. But they also won’t be fully equipped to beat them. The absence of Plaxico Burress hurt the Giants down the stretch this season, and it will hurt against the Eagles. Their Earth, Wind & Fire running game of Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw should be effective. But with Eli Manning lacking Burress as a deep threat, the passing attack is limited—something that the Eagles’ aggressive blitz scheme should be able to exploit.

My pick: Philadelphia 27, New York 24

San Diego Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
For the second week in a row, the Chargers game looks like the toughest one to pick. My thoughts on this one, re-printed below, were also included on Bill Williamson’s AFC West blog.

Records are irrelevant in the playoffs, so it doesn’t matter that the Chargers are 9-8 and the Steelers are 12-4. Things that do matter? Defense (advantage Steelers, number one in the league). Peaking at the right time (advantage Chargers, winners of five in a row). Injuries (Call it even between Tomlinson?s groin and Roethlisberger?s head). This game has all the makings of a slugfest much like the 11-10 result from earlier this season. And in the past three seasons, the Super Bowl winner has not had a first round bye. While that bodes well for San Diego, no one has been more battle-tested this year than the Steelers. Their rigorous schedule should have them well-prepared for the grind of playoff football. Polamalu picks off Rivers late to seal the deal.

My pick: Steelers 20, Chargers 13.

Matt's 2009 NFL Playoff Predictions Tally
LAST WEEK: 3-1
Overall: 3-1

Early Season 3-0 Surprises

No one expected anyone to replicate the Patriots’ 16-0 regular season from a year ago. And after three weeks of football, only six teams remain unbeaten: the New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, Tennessee Titans and Denver Broncos. All are 3-0 with the exception of 2-0 Baltimore.

Are they for real? Is the hot start indication of a playoff push? Only time will tell for sure, but why wait to forecast their fortunes? Here’s an overview of all six undefeated teams.

• New York Giants
  Two of their three wins have come against winless St. Louis and Cincinnati. They’ll be tested throughout the year though, playing in the league’s toughest division along with Dallas, Philadelphia and Washington. Still, it’s probably safe to say the defending champions are a legitimate contender as a 3-0 undefeated team. Their offense looks sharp under a suddenly poised and precise Eli Manning, and the defense is playing strong despite key losses.
  
  
• Dallas Cowboys
  It’d be hard to argue anyone else has looked better against stronger competition in the early part of this season. Dallas won a shootout with Philadelphia on Monday Night Football in week two and bounced back on Sunday night to win with defense against the previously unbeaten Packers. Add in a convincing week one performance against Cleveland, and it becomes clear why many people predict Dallas will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

Whereas both NFC unbeatens reside in the rugged NFC East, the AFC has one undefeated team in each of its four divisions.

• Buffalo Bills
  It took fourth quarter comebacks in consecutive weeks, but the Bills are undefeated and atop the AFC East. Second-year QB Trent Edwards is showing signs that he may be the leader the team has searched for since their last playoff appearance in 1999. Running back Marshawn Lynch gives the Bills a consistent ground attack, and their defense, featuring linebacker Paul Posluszny, has been solid. With Tom Brady out of action for New England, this division is wide open. The Bills will contend, but don’t count the Pats out just yet. And Brett Favre and the Jets may have a say in this race before all is said and done.

• Baltimore Ravens
  With rookie quarterback Joe Flacco at the helm, the Ravens may be the most unlikely undefeated team. After Hurricane Ike postponed their game with the Houston Texans, they found out they’d be playing 15 straight weeks, but they won the first of that streak on Sunday against the Browns, improving to 2-0. Flacco has done enough to help the Ravens’ veteran defense shut down the opposition, but he will tested in a divisional showdown next Monday against the Steelers. Expect Pittsburgh to hand him his first professional loss and take control of the AFC North.
  
  
• Tennessee Titans
  In a division that features the Colts and Jaguars, it’s the Titans with a two game lead in the standings and a 2-0 record within the division. Indianapolis and Jacksonville figure to challenge them, but if the Titans’ defense continues to dominate as it has this season and they coninue to run the ball effectively, they will be tough to beat. Expect this team—with or without Vince Young—to qualify for the playoffs this year.

• Denver Broncos
  The Ravens and Bills may be bigger surprises, but no one has had as much early season excitement as Denver. From their opening week dismantling of the hated Raiders to their week two shocker against San Diego to their week three nail biter against New Orleans, the Broncos have made headlines with an offensive attack that features one of the league’s most exciting aerial attacks. If Jay Cutler continues to find Brancon Marshall and Eddie Royal like this all season, Denver will make it tough for the Chargers to repeat in the AFC West.

Mystery's Team: the New York Giants

With two weeks between the AFC/NFC Championship games and Super Bowl XLII, MattHubert.com is taking an individual look at both the Patriots and the Giants before presenting its Super Bowl prediction column. Click here to read about the Patriots.

The New York Giants will play in Super Bowl XLII. Really? Yes, really, they will.

While the New England Patriots, at 18-0, are a team on the brink of making history, the Giants, at 13-6, are a team swathed in mystery.

Even Detective Mac Taylor would struggle to unravel the layers of this New York mystery.

• How did Tom Coughlin, amid speculation that he could be fired, get this team to rebound from an 0-2 start to go 6-2?
• How did they rebound from a 14-0 hole against Buffalo in week 16 to win 38-21 and clinch a playoff berth?
• How did they manage to give New England one of the Patriots’ best scares of the season in a week 17 game that had no barring on the Giants’ playoff seeding?
• How did they win three road playoff games in a row?
• How did they beat the Cowboys after having lost to them twice in the regular season?
• How did they knock off Brett Favre and company…in sub-zero temperatures…at Lambeau Field…in overtime…on a 47-yard field goal after their kicker had already missed two shorter kicks in the fourth quarter?
• How did Eli Manning, who threw a career high 20 interceptions during the regular season, play turnover-free football in three postseason wins?

How a trip to Buffalo saved the Giants' season

In the next several days leading up to the Super Bowl, many people will talk about the Giants’ decision to play their starters against New England. They’ll talk about how their defense intercepted the last pass of the season for both Tony Romo and Brett Favre, to secure and set up upset victories, respectively. But the turning point for this Giants team came in week 16.

The 9-5 Giants traveled to Buffalo with an opportunity to clinch a playoff berth. Knowing that the undefeated Patriots were their opponent the following week, the Giants knew this game was essentially a must-win.

Buffalo was not only playing at home; they were playing inspired. Kevin Everett, the Buffalo tight end who was nearly paralyzed earlier in the season, was in attendance for Bills’ final home game. And he was walking - something that seemed impossible to expect only a few months earlier.

At the end of the first quarter, the Bills had a 14-0 lead, and it looked as if the Giants were suffering yet another late season collapse. In 2004, they lost eight of their last nine, to finish the year 6-10. In 2005, they went 11-5, but they were one-and-done in the postseason, losing 23-0 against Carolina. Then last year the Giants lost six of their last eight, finishing the season 8-8 before bowing out in the first round of the playoffs.

With a 6-2 start in danger of falling to 9-6, the Giants rallied in the second quarter versus Buffalo. Brandon Jacobs had two rushing touchdowns in the first seven minutes of the second quarter to even the game at 14 apiece. A Lawrence Tynes field goal later made it 17-14 Giants at the half.

Buffalo scored first in the second half and regained the lead at 21-17, but the Giants dominated the fourth quarter. Ahmad Bradshaw’s 88-yard touchdown run was sandwiched by two interception returns for touchdowns by the Giants’ Kawika Mitchell and Corey Webster. Webster’s score with 5:50 remaining sealed New York’s 38-21 win.

In a game that featured rain, winds gusting from 30-50 miles per hour, and snow flurries, the Giants found a way to win. Despite four turnovers from Eli Manning, the Giants found a way to win.

Ahmad Bradshaw was one of the key discoveries of that day in Buffalo. He had carried the ball just six times all season prior to that game. But 17 carries, 151 yards and a touchdown later, Bradshaw was suddenly an important part of the Giants’ offensive game plan.

Finishing the season strong

Following that win, the Giants played the Patriots tough, even leading 28-16 more than halfway through the third quarter. Then they beat Tampa Bay 24-14. Then they outlasted Dallas 21-17. Then they edged Green Bay 23-20 in overtime. And now, it’s back to the Patriots, the last team to beat the Giants, for the Super Bowl.

Only five teams beat New York this season, and the Giants have already avenged losses to Dallas and Green Bay with postseason redemption. If they pull off the hat trick and avenge the loss to New England in the Super Bowl, the Giants’ mystery run will be remembered as one of the most confounding championship cases in NFL history.