A Cold Winter in Ann Arbor

The calendar turned to December and Michigan’s football season was already over. That’s still hard to believe. But after a 3-9 season that was disappointing even for the most cautious Wolverine supporter.

They fell well short of my 6-6 preseason forecast. They lost to Toledo and were humiliated by Ohio State. They lost an unthinkable five games in the Big House and six games against the Big Ten.

There were very few bright spots during coach Rich Rodriguez’s debut season in Ann Arbor. The historic comeback against Wisconsin to open the Big Ten season was one highlight, but Wisconsin was clearly overrated back then as they needed overtime to defeat Cal Poly and finished the regular season 7-5.

The biggest concern for Michigan has to be inconsistency from virtually every position on the field. No quarterback looked like he had a firm grasp of the offense. The defense surrendered 35+ points on five occasions. And turnovers were a season-long plague.

No one expects another losing season in 2009, but it won’t be easy for the Wolverines to get above .500. After all, a 6-6 mark next year would mean doubling the team’s win total.

While the focus will be on recruiting this year and what kind of players Rodriguez can land after a 3-9 campaign, player improvement will be the real test for the coach. A new bunch of freshmen can’t be expected to turn the program around all on their own next year. How will the players who have now been in the system for a full year show improvement in 2009? If they don’t get any better, that’s a serious cause for concern.

Michigan has already seen several players depart the program (in addition to graduating seniors), so it’ll also be interesting to see who steps up as a leader of this team. Running back Brandon Minor seems to fit that mold, but he shared carries with several backs during his junior year. Will be step up as a senior to restore pride to the maize and blue?

On defense, all eyes are on Brandon Graham. The defensive end led the team with 10 sacks this season. He could enter the NFL Draft, but if he returns, he would give the Wolverines a great anchor on their defensive line.

When it comes down to it, expectations will be low again next year. Undoubtedly, Rodriguez will feel the pressure, especially if Michigan struggles out the gate. But no one seriously expects them to contend in the Big Ten next year. What they have to do is so progress and not in the form of a one- or two-game improvement.

The program and coach Rodriguez deserves a one year pass. It would’ve been tough for anyone to overcome the loss of Jake Long, Mike Hart, Chad Henne, Ryan Mallett, Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington. But next year, there’s no excuse to miss a bowl. After the worst season in the history of Michigan football, Rodriguez better improve in a big way. Otherwise people will be calling for his head. Patience is short in the what-have-you-done-for-me-now world of college football.

The Game, 2008 Edition

How big is the annual meeting between Michigan and Ohio State? Well, it's know simply as "The Game." And, in 2000, ESPN dubbed it the greatest rivalry in North American sports.

The past few years have added to the rivalry, especially the 2006 game when undefeated #1 Ohio State met undefeated #2 Michigan for a chance to play for the BCS championship. But the Buckeyes have clearly had the upper hand since Jim Tressel took over as their head coach in 2001. Tressel has lost just once against Michigan.

This year? Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez makes his debut in the rivalry, and the forecast is gloomy, to say the least. At 3-8, Michigan has already secured the record for most losses in the school’s history. With a sub-.500 record, they’ve already snapped the streak of 33 consecutive bowl appearances.

All that remains is Ohio State.

As poor as Michigan has played, this is the ultimate chance for revenge. The Buckeyes win at least a share of the Big Ten title with a victory, and could still earn a trip to the Rose Bowl. A loss versus Michigan would end their hopes of playing in any of the BCS bowls.

For the Wolverines, this is a daunting task and a huge opportunity. Forget the disappointment of this season. The seniors on this Michigan squad are in danger of graduating having never beaten the Buckeyes. That’s not a legacy they want to leave behind.

For Rodriguez, a win would do wonders to ease the mounting pressure bearing down on him after one year at the helm. Even the most patient Wolverine fan is having trouble holding back now. I thought my modest preseason projection of six wins was palatable. Yet heading into the finale, they have achieved merely half that win total, and Rodriguez is receiving the brunt of the blame.

By setting the bar low with their performance this year, Michigan is in good position to show improvement in 2009. But Michigan fans want more than improvement. They expect to be in competition for the Big Ten title year in and year out, and they expect to be a national title contender. Clearly the team is far from that as it is presently constructed.

Until they re-establish that consistency, there’s only one way Rodriguez and the Wolverines can ease the pain of the maize and blue faithful: beat the Buckeyes.

Ohio State is beatable. They’ve suffered defeats at the hands of USC and Penn State already this season. They also start a freshman quarterback, Terrell Pryor, who will certainly be in the spotlight on Saturday afternoon. Pryor spurned Michigan and Rodriguez’ recruiting efforts, choosing to sign on at archrival Ohio State instead. Pryor will have the home crowd behind him for this year’s game, but he’s sure to be under attack from the Wolverines defense.

No one expects Michigan to win this game. Many think it won’t even be close. But rivalry games are different. Win or lose, this is Michigan’s last game of the year. Essentially, this is their bowl game. If Rodriguez can’t get his team fired up to play well in this one, it’s going to be a long offseason in Ann Arbor.

Streaks at Stake for the Wolverines

Michigan hasn’t lost to Penn State in 12 years. But Michigan lost to Toledo just last week, and Penn State hasn’t lost a game all season. Clearly, the streak is in jeopardy.

I can’t remember back to 1996, the last time the Nittany Lions won against the Wolverines. I also can’t remember a Michigan team this bad.

Expectations were low for the inaugural season of the Rich Rodriguez era but the come-from-behind win over Wisconsin coupled with a loss against previously 1-4 MAC squad Toledo has the maize and blue faithful upset.

After watching the Badgers stumble the past two weeks against Ohio State and Penn State, that Big Ten opener may not have been quite as big as we thought. Wisconsin still should’ve won the game, but the result told us more about Wisconsin—they aren’t very good—than it did about Michigan. (They aren’t very good either.)

The Wolverines are likely to see their nine-game winning streak against Penn State snapped on Saturday. Many are even predicting a 30+ point blowout. If that’s the case, they’re likely to see another even more impressive streak end. Michigan has played in 33 straight bowl games. At 2-4, they’re in grave danger of becoming bowl ineligible long before the season finale against rival Ohio State.

The Wolverines have no sure victories left on the schedule. Following Penn State, they will play vs. Michigan State, at Purdue, at Minnesota, vs. Northwestern and at Ohio State. It seems highly unlikely that the Wolverines will pull out a 4-2 mark down the stretch, which would require at least one victory against a team currently unbeaten in Big Ten action.

The easy thing to do is point to new coach Rich Rodriguez and his struggling offense. I say hold on. Check out what I wrote when he was hired. College football is an instant gratification sport, but the Wolverines fans need to bite their tongues this year—tough as that may be.

The difference between Michigan and my other football team, the Oakland Raiders, is that Michigan has a proven coach, and that coach has a plan. Rodriguez simply needs his players to run this system. I expect them to win the Big Ten by 2010 after he’s signed a few recruiting classes. Until then, it’s probably time to say goodbye to those streaks. They were fun while they lasted.

Two Steps Forward, Three Steps Back

Rich Rodriguez’s squad played 15 minutes of football on Saturday against Illinois. Unfortunately for Rodriguez and Michigan, games last 60 minutes. Illinois spanked the Wolverines in the Big House 45-20. The loss dropped Michigan to 2-3 on the year, 1-1 in the Big Ten.

The loss wasn’t a shocker. In fact, I had predicted Michigan would start the year 1-4, so they’re ahead of pace. But following the Wolverines’ historic second-half comeback against Wisconsin the previous week, Michigan fans—myself included—were optimistic that this team had turned a corner. Their first quarter performance fueled those feelings even more as quarterback Steven Threet looked sharp, helping lead them to a 14-3 lead.

Illinois scored the final 14 points of the half to lead 17-14 and they never looked back. Michigan’s offense reverted to the team that was shutout for a half versus Wisconsin. That was not entirely surprising. The defense surrendering 45 points and 501 yards? That was not expected, even against a potent Illini offense.

So where do the Wolverines go from here? Well, it starts with a break in the Big Ten schedule as Michigan plays host to Toledo on Saturday. The Wolverines will be favored to win. They’ll have to do so if they want a bowl berth this season.

This is a chance for Michigan to grow as an offense and re-charge on defense. After last year’s Appalachian State experience, the maize and blue no better than to overlook an opponent, but Toledo should signal Hail to the Victors in Ann Arbor.

A win would even their record at 3-3 at the midseason mark. They would then have to go at least 3-3—and maybe 4-2—the rest of the way in the Big Ten to keep their 33-season bowl streak alive.

It’s hardly a given that they’ll make it. Four of the final six will be on the road where the young Wolverines have played just once, losing badly at Notre Dame. Three games are against current unbeatens: Penn State, Michigan State and Northwestern. And the season finale is at Ohio State. Don’t think the Buckeyes wouldn’t love to be the ones ultimately responsible for keeping Michigan at home during bowl season.

Michigan has shown only mild improvement on offense through six games. Steven Threet’s passing accuracy and decision-making is inconsistent. And too often they are losing yardage on first and second down. The defense has bailed them out in their win, but they proved that they’re still vulnerable against mobile quarterbacks.

Rich Rodriguez has his work cut out for him. If he can get this group of players into a bowl game, it’ll be considered a success in my eyes, even if not by Michigan’s usual standards. But if they falter down the stretch and fail to crack .500, watch out. More than anything, this team—especially on offense—needs to show progress through the final six weeks of the season.