AFC West Story of the Week

It's a busy time of year in the sports world, and you can tell it's rubbing off on me. Three posts in one night! The hat trick comes, once again, by virtue of my thoughts being included on Bill Williamson's AFC West blog. This time I'm weighing in on the AFC West story of the week, which I believe was the Chargers playoff win over the Colts.

2009 NFL Divisional Playoffs Preview

I didn’t write a column with last weekend’s wild card round picks. It was right after the holidays. I was in a time crunch. Blah blah blah. Anyway, I didn’t write a column, but I posted my usual playoff picks, and I went 3-1.

By not thinking (and writing) too much, I didn’t talk myself into any bad picks. The only game I missed was the Chargers-Colts battle, and that game was the closest of them all, eventually being settled in overtime in favor of San Diego thanks to career nights for backup running back Darren Sproies and punter Mike Scifres.

So, after the silent treatment was successful, I’m doing the obvious—completely abandoning that winning strategy and writing a picks column for the divisional round. I’m feeling good after winning Erie Times-News sports columnist Duane Rankin’s BCS challenge with a clean sweep, 5-0, of the big college bowl games. Now it’s time for me to go pro with the picks for this weekend.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans
The first team to 10 may very well win this game. These teams play similar grind-it-out styles that depend on their defenses and running games. The primary contrast comes at quarterback. The Ravens will play rookie Joe Flacco. The Titans will start 36-year-old veteran Kerry Collins, whose first playoff start came Jan. 5, 1997. Flacco was 11 years old. Collins hasn’t exactly had a Hall of Fame career, but I think his wisdom and Flacco’s inexperience will be the difference in this one.

My pick: Tennessee 13, Baltimore 3

Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers
This game looks to be the biggest mismatch of the weekend. Carolina was 8-0 at home this season, and Arizona was just 3-5 on the road. Plus, the Cardinals may be without Anquan Boldin, allowing the Panthers to put extra attention on Larry Fitzgerald. Expect Kurt Warner to keep it close for a half, but then the Panthers’ will pull away to win going away.

My pick: Carolina 34, Arizona 17

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants
Last year, the Giants were in the Eagles’ role, heading to Dallas for a divisional round matchup on the road as an underdog. So the Giants won’t be blindsided by Donovan McNabb and company. But they also won’t be fully equipped to beat them. The absence of Plaxico Burress hurt the Giants down the stretch this season, and it will hurt against the Eagles. Their Earth, Wind & Fire running game of Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw should be effective. But with Eli Manning lacking Burress as a deep threat, the passing attack is limited—something that the Eagles’ aggressive blitz scheme should be able to exploit.

My pick: Philadelphia 27, New York 24

San Diego Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
For the second week in a row, the Chargers game looks like the toughest one to pick. My thoughts on this one, re-printed below, were also included on Bill Williamson’s AFC West blog.

Records are irrelevant in the playoffs, so it doesn’t matter that the Chargers are 9-8 and the Steelers are 12-4. Things that do matter? Defense (advantage Steelers, number one in the league). Peaking at the right time (advantage Chargers, winners of five in a row). Injuries (Call it even between Tomlinson?s groin and Roethlisberger?s head). This game has all the makings of a slugfest much like the 11-10 result from earlier this season. And in the past three seasons, the Super Bowl winner has not had a first round bye. While that bodes well for San Diego, no one has been more battle-tested this year than the Steelers. Their rigorous schedule should have them well-prepared for the grind of playoff football. Polamalu picks off Rivers late to seal the deal.

My pick: Steelers 20, Chargers 13.

Matt's 2009 NFL Playoff Predictions Tally
LAST WEEK: 3-1
Overall: 3-1

A Difference in Coaching Styles

There’s a very interesting post up on Forum Blue & Gold right now about lessons in losing. Specifically, it talks about the differences in the way that Phil Jackson and Doc Rivers have handled the rough patches their teams have endured early this season.

Many fans—myself included—often get on Jackson and the Lakers for seemingly not bringing it every night and playing down to the level of their competition. Similarly, Rivers’ Celtics—since acquiring Kevin Garnett—have been routinely praised for giving maximum effort at all times, as if every game determined the NBA champion.

The Celtics’ model, and Garnett in particular, is a high school coach’s dream. The idea of giving 100 percent effort is a good thing. However, the practice of it may be problematic. The Celtics played more than 100 games last year. Their core of players is not young by NBA standards and they lost key contributors from last year’s team including James Posey and P.J. Brown. So, it’s only natural that giving the same continous all-out effort game after game would leave them even more drained this season.

Their recent losing skid, which has seen them drop six of their last eight games, is drawing a lot of attention. But it’s not a phenomenal event. Winning 27 of their first 29 was the phenomenal thing. They were playing above their talent, and now they’ve dropped to earth. Their goal of winning the NBA title remains very much a possibility.

But in order for that to happen, Rivers is going to have to find a way to refocus his team. They are not the ’96 Bulls. Seventy wins isn’t happening. They may hit 60, but that’s irrelevant. The goal is to be playing your best in May and June. Boston better hope that they didn’t already peak in November and December.

I felt the need to comment on the subject, but I don't want to steal its thunder. It's an excellent post, especially if you’re a Lakers fan who agonizes over the occasional loss to Sacramento. Read it. It will make you feel a lot better about the whole situation in Lakerland.

The SEC Owns the BCS

Tim Tebow against Sam Bradford. Urban Meyer vs. Bob Stoops. The SEC against the Big 12. Florida vs. Oklahoma. This year’s BCS National Championship is loaded with intriguing storylines, but the most interesting may be the SEC’s domination of the BCS.

If Florida beats Oklahoma (and they are favored to do so), the Gators will win their second BCS National Championship in three years. It would also make the SEC a perfect 5-0 in the title game since the BCS originated in 1998. Tennessee won that first year. LSU won in 2003 and again last year. And Florida won in 2006.

How good has the SEC been? At 4-0, they aren’t just the best conference in the BCS era—they’re dominant. No other conference has won more than two BCS National Championships and. No other conference even has a winning record in the big game. The Pac-10 is closest at 1-1 thanks to USC.

Here’s the breakdown:

BCS National Championship Success
SEC: 4-0
Pac-10: 1-1
Big 12: 2-3
ACC: 1-2
Big East: 1-2
Big Ten: 1-2

Not that Oklahoma needs any added incentive. They represent the Big 12, and will play in a record fourth BCS National Championship. However, they are just 1-2 in the big game under Coach Stoops.

And conference success on the big stage means more than just bragging rights. It means more media attention. It means a boost in recruiting. And, if everyone plays their cards right, it breeds more success. The SEC’s Georgia Bulldogs began the season as the nation’s top team. Alabama, also of the SEC held the #1 ranking for several weeks. Florida now holds that spot and looks to finish the season on top.

Win or lose, the Gators will be among the top teams again next year along with several other SEC schools. The SEC is 4-2 in the ’08-’09 bowl season heading into the finale. The one loss that sticks out came against an opponent from the Mountain West conference. How come they never get a shot at the BCS?

But until the little guy gets a shot or a playoff system is instituted, the big bad SEC is going to remain king. Tonight, expect plenty of offense from both sides. But in the end, Tebow and the team speed of the Gators is too much for the Sooners.

Florida 42, Oklahoma 35 is the pick.

ESPN Switches Announcers. Other NBA Switcheroos to Follow?

Perhaps more than any announcer today, Dick Vitale is synonymous with his one sport—college basketball. But tonight, the bald, one-eyed basketball wacko who beat the ziggy and became a PTP’er will take part in an ESPN gimmick that features a switcheroo of announcing crews.

Vitale will team with play-by-play man Dan Shulman to call the NBA game between the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat. Meanwhile the crew of Mike Tirico, Mark Jackson and Jeff Van Gundy will call the college contest between Duke and Davidson.

Is it a ploy by ESPN to drum up ratings? Of course. Will it work? Maybe. Will I be watching? You better believe it.

I love both of these announcing booths to begin with. Vitale is a polarizing figure. Either you love his passion for the game or you’re annoyed by his over-the-top enthusiastic delivery. Personally, I love it, and can’t wait to hear his take on the NBA action. And Jackson and Van Gundy are the best analyst duo in the NBA as far as I’m concerned, so it’ll be interesting to hear their views on the college game and the pro prospects in the game, especially Davidson star Stephen Curry.

Dick Vitale’s one-game announcing stint has me thinking about other one-time switches I’d like to see in the NBA this season.

• Referees and Coaches
  Imagine Phil Jackson, Gregg Popovich and Stan Van Gundy working a heated contest between the Boston and Cleveland as Celtics Coach Dick Bavetta and Cavs Coach Joey Crawford had to be restrained on the sidelines. Jackson wouldn’t even need to carry a whistle.
  
  
• Fans and Announcers
  Who wouldn’t want to win the contest that meant you and your best friend could call a game on the air? And wouldn’t It be great to see the regular commentators stuck in the nosebleed seats behind a family with crying children and beside that drunk obnoxious guy you always seem to end up seated near?
  
  
• College Team and Pro Team
  The NHL has tweaked the sport and made January 1 a showcase date with an outdoor game the past two years. Why can’t basketball follow suit? Take college basketball’s top-ranked team as of December 25 and pit them against the team with the worst record in the NBA in a New Year’s Day showdown. Play the first half with NBA rules (for two 12-minute quarters) and the second half with NCAA rules (for one 20-minute half). Imagine seeing early-entry players Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook and the (at the time) 4-win Oklahoma City Thunder suit up against senior Tyler Hansbrough and the (at the time) undefeated University of North Carolina Tar Heels.
  
  
• 3-Point Shot and Dunk
  Fans love dunks. But what if, for one game, a dunk was worth 3 points and everything else—including shots from beyond the arc—was worth only 2? Sure, it penalizes the short players and lousy leapers, but it would give players who can dunk—and in the NBA, that’s almost everyone— extra incentive to take it to the hoop and finish strong.
  
  
• NBA Rules and Playground Rules
  The notion of defining “playground rules” sort of violates the whole spirit of playground basketball to begin with, but there are a few staples that I think are musts. Winner’s ball/make it take it…whatever you call it…would be in effect. There is no time set, but rather a score total. First team to 100 wins. Players call their own fouls. Tie-ups go to the defense. And perhaps most importantly, trash-talking is allowed and encouraged. Mic’ing the court might be a good idea. They have to play the game on HBO for mature language, but it’d be worth it.

Looking Back at 2008 and Ahead at 2009

2008 was a great year for sports. Michael Phelps’ record-setting 8 gold medals highlighted the most exciting Olympic Games of my lifetime, which also included a gold medal for the Redeem Team in Men’s basketball as well as excitement in gymnastics from Nastia Liukin and Shawn Johnson and on the track from Usain Bolt.

In the NFL, the New England Patriots started the season 18-0 only to lose in one of the most dramatic and surprising Super Bowl outcomes of all-time against Eli Manning and the New York Giants.

The NBA saw the resurgence of its two most storied franchises when the Boston Celtics met the Los Angeles Lakers in the Finals, won by Boston in six games.

College sports featured another upset-filled football season that saw a slew of top teams knocked off down the stretch, eventually setting up an LSU vs. Ohio State matchup in the BCS title game, which LSU won handily. And in basketball, Kansas ended the David-and-Goliath-like run of Davidson before upending Memphis thanks to a clutch shot from Mario Chalmers that will be replayed every March from now on.

Major League Baseball featured a season in which the previously-forever-futile Tampa Bay Rays removed the ‘Devil’ and beat out the Evil Empire New York Yankees and their Boston brethren to win the AL East and, eventually, the pennant before losing to the Philadelphia Phillies. For the City of Brotherly Love, it was their first title in the major four sports since 1983.

And in the NHL (yes, hockey reporting on MattHubert.com), Sid Crosby grew up as he led his Pittsburgh Penguins to the Stanley Cup Finals where they fell to the Detroit Red Wings.

Yes, it was a good year for sports—just not for my teams in sports.

Most of my teams failed, plain and simple. But even those that had good seasons ended up breaking my heart.

The Lakers exceeded preseason expectations, but their Finals performance was disastrous—blowing a 24-point lead at home in Game 4 and folding to lose Game 6—and the series—by 39 points. The fact that this happened against archrival Boston was what hurt most of all, though, and all the year’s successes were mitigated by six lackluster games leaving me feeling empty and betrayed.

Likewise, in college hoops, UCLA had a strong season, riding freshman Kevin Love to the Final Four. It was the Bruins’ third straight trip to the Final Four, and with Love filling the void that had seemingly cost them in two previous losses—a formidable presence down low—it seemed like this was the year. But Love shot just 4-11 and Memphis outscored UCLA 40-28 in the second half to pull away for a victory that the Tigers controlled pretty much the whole way.

And if the Lakers and Bruins’ season-ending losses stung, at least they had some wins to get them there. The Raiders finished out the ’08 campaign with back-to-back victories to salvage something from a lost season, but they still finished 5-11, which made them the first team in NFL history to have five seasons in a row with at least 11 losses. They also fired coach Lane Kiffin, making interim Tom Cable the Raiders’ fifth head coach in six years.

Things were no better in the college ranks where Michigan won just three games, lost five games at the Big House, and missed a bowl for the first time since 1974.

In baseball, the A’s weren’t even relevant, and though they’ve been competitive in the decade, have never made a World Series appearance during the Moneyball era.

But 2008 is over, so it’s time to focus on the future.

Here now are 10 predictions, fears and dreams for 2009—five for the sports world at large and five focusing on my teams—the Lakers, Raiders, Michigan, UCLA and the Athletics.

Predictions

1. The Raiders will not make it a sixth straight year of 11-or-more losses, but they won’t break the .500 mark either.
2. Lamar Odom will not be a Laker at the start of the 2009-10 season.
3. Michigan will play in a bowl game in 2009.
4. In basketball, Michigan will not only make it to the tournament, they’ll advance to the Sweet 16, further than my other team, UCLA, who will see its run of Final Four appearances snapped by an upset on the first weekend of the tournament.
5. With a few call-ups to bolster their staff, the A’s will return to the postseason.
6. Tim Tebow will return to Florida and attempt to become a two-time Heisman and three-time national champion.
7. With teams aware of his singular talent, Stephon Curry and Davidson will get tripped up in the second round of the NCAA tournament.
8. LeBron James will supplant Kobe Bryant as NBA MVP.
9. Tiger Woods will once again be the best golfer, winning two majors. (For the record, that’s hockey and golf in the same post.)
10. Matt Cassell will start Week 1 for the New England Patriots—not Tom Brady.

Fears

1. Jamarcus Russell fails to develop as a quarterback in 2009, forcing the Raiders to start over (again) at quarterback.
2. Andrew Bynum will reinjure himself, handicapping the Lakers’ playoff chances again this year.
3. Terrelle Pryor will be to Michigan what Troy Smith was with the added pain that he almost chose to play for the Wolverines.
4. Jrue Holiday will follow Kevin Love’s lead and be one-and-done, off to the NBA after his freshman season.
5. The Angels become the Yankees of the West, leaving Oakland in the dust when it comes to money for free agents.
6. The Celtics sign Stephon Marbury and Kevin Garnett wills him to play as well as he did when the two took the Timberwolves to the playoffs in the 90s.
7. Tom Brady makes a full recovery, and the Patriots regain their 2007 form.
8. College football signs a 10-year extension to keep the current BCS system in place.
9. USC’s football team stays focused for a full season.
10. The Steelers win the Super Bowl, bringing out the annoying droves of fair-weather Steelers fans in all their black and gold glory.

Dreams

1. Al Davis sells the Raiders organization to give them a fresh start and a chance to win again.
2. The Lakers find a way to combine the defense and athleticism of Trevor Ariza, size and three-point shooting of Vladimir Radmanovich, and basketball IQ and passing ability of Luke Walton to form a complete small forward.
3. Michigan finds a freshman quarterback with the skills to run Rodriguez’s offense and the mind to handle Big Ten defenses.
4. Michigan re-hangs the banners from the Fab Five’s Final Four appearances.
5. A prominent free agent spurns the Yankees to sign with the A’s for less money because he prefers the A’s green uniforms to the Yankees’ green.
6. My team wins a fantasy football championship.
7. Major League Baseball institutes a salary cap to level the playing field and keep the Yankees in check.
8. Sportscasters stop pointing out the obvious and provide actual insight.
9. A Web site develops a jersey shop where you can order any player from any team from any era. My first order? Pooh Richardson circa 1990 with the Minnesota Timberwolves. I don’t know why, but that’s my dream.
10. The Lakers host (and win) Game 7 of the NBA Finals. Beyonce is the halftime entertainment. And I have courtside seats next to Jack Nicholson to take it all in.

NFL Playoff Picks

Four road favorites should make for an interesting opening round of the 2009 NFL playoffs. Something tells me that at least one of the road favorites will fall, and it might be the one you least expect.

My picks:

AFC
Indianapolis over San Diego
Baltimore over Miami

NFC
Arizona over Atlanta
Philadelphia over Minnesota